Concept

The Principle of Optimism is a cornerstone of the philosophy of David Deutsch, introduced in Chapter 9 of The Beginning of Infinity. It states that all evils are caused by a lack of knowledge. In other words, the only thing standing in the way of solving a given problem is the knowledge of how to do so.

The laws of physics govern what is possible and impossible in this universe. A given task is either:

1. Forbidden by the laws of phsyics.
2. Possible, given the right knowledge.

There are no intermediate possibilities. Very hard tasks are still possible tasks. There are no insurmountable barriers to progress, no inherent limitations to human potential, other than our current state of ignorance.

Key Arguments

1. The Physical World is Explicable: The universe is governed by physical laws that are, in principle, comprehensible to human reason. This means that there are no supernatural or inherently unknowable forces at play, only phenomena that await explanation.

2. Problems are Soluble: Because the universe operates according to discoverable laws, then problems, including those we perceive as "evils," are essentially instances where our knowledge of these laws and how to apply them is incomplete. Therefore, problems are not insurmountable barriers, but rather challenges that can be overcome by expanding our knowledge and developing new technologies.

3. People are Universal Explainers and Constructors: People possess the unique capacity for creativity, allowing us to generate new knowledge. This capacity makes us "universal constructors," capable of transforming the world around us without fundamental limit.

4. Knowledge Creation is Unbounded: There's no pre-determined limit to the amount of knowledge humans can create. The history of scientific progress is full of examples of seemingly insurmountable barriers that have been overcome.

5. Therefore, All Evils Can Be Solved: If the only limitation to solving problems is knowledge, and knowledge creation is unbounded, then it follows logically that any problem is either forbidden by the laws of physics or can be solved with the right knowledge.

Implications

Many tasks, such as extending the human lifespan by 1,000 years, might initially appear impossible. But if a task is not explicitly forbidden by the laws of physics, it must be achievable. This applies to other seemingly insurmountable challenges as well, such as curing currently incurable diseases, preventing natural disasters, or even achieving interstellar travel. We can fail to do so, but it is possible.

The principle of optimism offers a powerful framework for navigating an uncertain future with a sense of hope and agency. As the rate of technological progress increases, the realisation of these possibilities will be destabilising to those whose worldviews do not account for it. We must rapidly create new knowledge by improving our ability to do so and removing obstacles that hinder this process.

Further Reading and Watching

• Optimism (Series) | Brett Hall
• The Beginning of Infinity | David Deutsch
• Rational Optimist | Matt Ridley